Impact of Real-Time Data, Market Sentiment, and Economic Factors on Investment Profitability in Indonesia
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
The study investigates the complex interplay of real-time data, market sentiment, and economic factors in shaping investment profitability in the context of Indonesia. Real-time data, including stock prices and trading volumes, market sentiment derived from sentiment analysis and expert interviews, and economic factors such as GDP growth, inflation rates, and interest rates are examined for their impact on investment outcomes. Quantitative methods, including correlation analysis, regression analysis, and time series analysis, are employed to analyze a comprehensive dataset spanning an extended period. The findings reveal that real-time data has a significant positive influence on investment profitability, underlining the importance of timely access to financial information. Market sentiment also exerts a notable impact, as more positive sentiment correlates with higher profitability. However, the relationship between economic factors and profitability is nuanced, with GDP growth exhibiting a positive influence and inflation rates and interest rates demonstrating weak negative effects. These results offer practical insights for investors and financial analysts, emphasizing the need to consider a holistic approach that incorporates real-time data, sentiment analysis, and macroeconomic indicators in investment decision-making. The study contributes to a deeper understanding of investment dynamics in the emerging market of Indonesia.
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
M. Krishnadas, K. P. Harikrishnan, and G. Ambika, “Recurrence measures and transitions in stock market dynamics,” Phys. A Stat. Mech. its Appl., vol. 608, p. 128240, 2022.
V. Moskalenko and S. Kachanova, “Decision support system for set-up of investment portfolio as a part of company development program.” МО Бондаренко, 2018.
M. Zhang, “Time Series Artificial Neural Network based Classification Model for Asset Trading Strategy,” Highlights Business, Econ. Manag., vol. 1, pp. 214–233, 2022.
A. Vie, M. Scholl, A. M. Kleinnijenhuis, and J. D. Farmer, “Towards evology: a market ecology agent-based model of us equity mutual funds,” arXiv Prepr. arXiv2210.11344, 2022.
A. Tohawi, J. Iswanto, and F. A. Barata, “Strategic Management Of Education To Enhance Environmental-Oriented Competitiveness On Industrial 4.0,” in ICOLEESS: International Conference on Language, Education, Economic and Social Science, 2019, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 172–190.
J. Iswanto, A. Kusmaningtyas, and M. Murgianto, “Strategic Management Of Education To Enhance Environmental-Oriented Competitiveness,” Int. J. Econ. Bus. Account. Res., vol. 3, no. 02, 2019.
X. Zhang, “On Financial Complexity and Market Modeling Method,” in Financial Forum, 2021, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 225–228.
J. Iswanto, P. Winarko, and Z. Munawarah, “Analisis Hukum Islam Terhadap Strategi Pemasaran Usaha Konveksi CV. Nuratina Collection dalam Menghadapi Persaingan Bisnis di Era Industri 4.0,” J. Din. Ekon. Syariah, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 48–62, 2021.
J. Iswanto, M. S. Musthofa, and B. P. Rahayu, “Strategi pemasaran digital dalam meningkatkan penjualan di era disrupsi menurut ekonomi islam (Studi Kasus Pada Dapur Onah Donat dan Cake Di Desa Werungotok Kecamatan Nganjuk, Kabupaten Nganjuk),” J. Din. Ekon. Syariah, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 168–177, 2023.
T. P. Nugrahanti and A. S. Pratiwi, “The Remote Audit and Information Technology: The impact of Covid-19 Pandemics,” JABE (JOURNAL Account. Bus. Educ., vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 15–39, 2023.
H. Ashari and T. P. Nugrahanti, “Household economy challenges in fulfilling life needs during the Covid-19 pandemic,” Glob. Bus. Econ. Rev., vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 21–39, 2021.
N. Trinandari Prasetyo Nugrahanti, “Dysfunctional Audit Behavior and Sign Off Premature Audit Procedures: Case Study of Jakarta Public Accounting Firm,” 2020.
L. Sumarni, “Financial development and economic growth in Indonesia: An ARDL-Bounds testing approach,” Econ. J. Emerg. Mark., pp. 89–96, 2019.
S. Wongsrida and P. Chaitip, “Effect of macro factor volatility on the returns of financial sector in Southeast Asian stock markets,” Chinese Bus. Rev., vol. 13, no. 1, 2014.
Y. Iskandar, “Pengaruh Modal Sosial, Kapabilitas Financial, Orientasi Kewirausahaan terhadap Daya Saing Bisnis Berkelanjutan serta Implikasinya pada Kinerja UMKM Industri Kuliner di Kota Sukabumi,” Senmabis Semin. Nas. Manaj. dan Bisnis, vol. 4789, pp. 2–19, 2022, [Online]. Available: https://senmabis.nusaputra.ac.id/
E. D. D. Rahmah and Y. Iskandar, “The Effect of Profitability and Financial Risk on Earning Management of Mobile Telecommunication Operators That Registered in Indonesia Stock Exchange Period 2015 - 2018,” Nusant. Sci. Technol. Proc., vol. 4, no. 4 SE-, pp. 362–368, Jul. 2021, doi: 10.11594/nstp.2021.1041.
C. M. F. Mala, S. Jumono, W. Lastro, and Y. Iskandar, “Income Diversification, Profitability, And Risk In Islamic Banking In Indonesia ,” Int. J. Business, Law, Educ., vol. 4, no. 2 SE-, pp. 942–951, Oct. 2023, doi: 10.56442/ijble.v4i2.266.
L. Kustina, R. Sudarsono, and N. Effendi, “Market Crash Factors And Developing An Early Warning System: Evidence From Asia,” 2023.
W. Dhewanto, A. N. Umbara, and R. Hanifan, “Towards Policy Development of Entrepreneurial Ecosystem: A Review in Indonesia Financial Technology Sector,” in Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Industrial and Business Engineering, 2022, pp. 282–290.
A. N. Tahir and D. N. Danarsari, “App-Based Investment Platform and Investment Decision Making: A Study of Retail Investor Behavior in Indonesia,” Eduvest-Journal Univers. Stud., vol. 3, no. 7, pp. 1258–1272, 2023.
R. Febriyanti and Y. Yuniningsih, “Psychological Bias Factors in Stock Investment Decision Making Among College Students”.
A. J. Tenripada and H. S. Disemadi, “Ekonomi Kreatif sebagai Anak Panah Politik Hukum Investasi di Indonesia,” Leg. Spirit, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 23–36, 2023.
A. D. Saputra, R. Yanuardi, and A. Maharani, “THE ROLE OF THE MANUFACTURING ON THE INDONESIAN ECONOMY,” Indones. J. Multidiscip. Sci., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 157–166, 2023.
H. Millia, E. Ernawati, and H. Heriberta, “Do foreign direct investment, trade and their interactions affect economic growth in Indonesia?,” J. Perspekt. Pembiayaan dan Pembang. Drh., vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 1–16, 2023.
A. K. Indrajaya, S. G. Simanjuntak, and S. Muchtar, “Bank Risk, Profitability, Dan Investment Diversification: Studi Perusahaan Perbankan Di Indonesia,” J. Ekon., vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 64–79, 2022.
M.-S. Jameaba, “Digitization revolution, FinTech disruption, and financial stability: Using the case of Indonesian banking ecosystem to highlight wide-ranging digitization opportunities and major challenges,” FinTech Disruption, Financ. Stab. Using Case Indones. Bank. Ecosyst. to highlight wide-ranging Digit. Oppor. major challenges (July 16 2, 2020), 2020.
W. Abadi and A. D. Syarif, “Analysis of Factors Affecting Investment Decision with Growth Opportunities as a Moderation Variable in Basic Industry and Chemicals Sector Companies Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2016–2020”.
J. Effendi, A. Qoyum, L. I. Wardhana, and H. M. T. Thaker, “IT Investment And Islamic Banking Performance In Indonesia: Do Sukuk Issuance And Sariah Governance Matter?,” 2023.
R. E. Arini and Y. Iskandar, “The Effect of Benchmark, Money Raised, Market Value, and Magnitude of Underpricing Towards Abnormal Return Shares on the Long-Term Performance of Initial Public Offerings in Indonesia,” Proc. Int. Conf. Econ. Manag. Account. (ICEMAC 2021), vol. 207, no. Icemac 2021, pp. 142–151, 2022, doi: 10.2991/aebmr.k.220204.016.
Y. Iskandar, N. Zulbainarni, and S. Jahroh, “Pengaruh Karakteristik Usaha dan Wirausaha Terhadap Kinerja UMKM Industri Pengolahan Perikanan di Kabupaten Sukabumi,” J. REKOMEN (Riset Ekon. Manajemen), vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 1–12, 2020.
Y. Iskandar and U. Kaltum, “The Relationship Between Intellectual Capital and Performance of Social Enterprises: A Literature Review,” 2021.
Y. Iskandar, J. Joeliaty, U. Kaltum, and H. Hilmiana, “Bibliometric analysis on social entrepreneurship specialized journals,” WSEAS Trans. Environ. Dev., vol. 17, pp. 941–951, 2021, doi: 10.37394/232015.2021.17.87.
Y. Iskandar and T. Sarastika, “Study of Socio-Economic Aspect and Community Perception on The Development of The Agricultural Area Shrimp Ponds in Pasir mendit and Pasir Kadilangu,” West Sci. J. Econ. Entrep., vol. 1, no. 01, pp. 28–36, 2023.
C. Li, L. Shen, and G. Qian, “Online Hybrid Neural Network for Stock Price Prediction: A Case Study of High-Frequency Stock Trading in the Chinese Market,” Econometrics, vol. 11, no. 2, p. 13, 2023.
H. Ghous, M. H. Malik, A. Mahrukh, and A. M. Zaffar, “Exchange Stock Price Prediction using Time Series data: A Survey,” Pakistan J. Humanit. Soc. Sci., vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 1139–1154, 2023.
A. H. M. Sastraatmadja et al., Metodologi Penelitian Pendidikan Kompetensi Dan Aplikasinya. Global Eksekutif Teknologi, 2023.
H. L. Shang and K. Ji, “Forecasting intraday financial time series with sieve bootstrapping and dynamic updating,” J. Forecast., 2023.
K. N. Myint and M. Khaing, “Time Series Forecasting System for Stock Market Data,” in 2023 IEEE Conference on Computer Applications (ICCA), 2023, pp. 56–61.
P. Debie et al., “The Analysis of High-Frequency Finance Data using ROOT,” in Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2023, vol. 2438, no. 1, p. 12068.
J.-X. Liu, J.-S. Leu, and S. Holst, “Stock price movement prediction based on Stocktwits investor sentiment using FinBERT and ensemble SVM,” PeerJ Comput. Sci., vol. 9, p. e1403, 2023.
B. Gao and J. Xie, “Forecasting excess returns and abnormal trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from Chinese stock index futures market,” Emerg. Mark. Financ. Trade, vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 593–612, 2020.
B. Almansour, “The impact of market sentiment index on stock returns: An empirical investigation on Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange,” J. Arts, Sci. Commer., vol. 6, no. 3, 2015.
Y. Zhao, Z. Yang, and X. Qian, “Investor Sentiment and Chinese A-Share Stock Markets Anomalies,” Int. J. Econ. Financ., vol. 7, no. 9, pp. 293–312, 2015.
H. Ma, J. Ma, S. Liang, and W. Du, “A Model of Integrating Bert and BiGRU+ Attention Dual-channel Mechanism for Investor Sentiment Analysis of Stock Price Forecast,” in 2022 IEEE/ACIS 23rd International Conference on Software Engineering, Artificial Intelligence, Networking and Parallel/Distributed Computing (SNPD), 2022, pp. 126–131.
L. C. M. Phuong, T. T. Quynh, H. L. T. Vi, and D. T. K. Truc, “Impact of Macro Factors on Stock Market Capitalization,” VNU Univ. Econ. Bus., vol. 3, no. 2, p. 60, 2023.
R. Barro, “Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis.” MIT Press, 1998.
S. Agarwal, “Mutual funds are subject to market risks: Empirical evidence from India,” J. Wealth Manag., vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 66–85, 2019.
J. Bjelić, S. Kovačević, and O. Eric, “Macroeconomic Stability And European Union Investments,” Acta Econ., vol. 20, no. 37, pp. 29–47, 2022.
G. Kavitha and S. Bhuvaneswari, “Impact analysis of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market using Neutrosophic Interval Valued Dependent Matrix Model.,” Int. J. Neutrosophic Sci., vol. 20, no. 1, 2023.
T. T. U. Sipahutar, C. P. Sihombing, F. B. Manullang, and H. Hantono, “Pengaruh Modal, SIA, Dan Pendapatan Terhadap Nilai Investasi Dengan Harga Saham Sebagai Variabel Moderating,” Own. Ris. dan J. Akunt., vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 2246–2261, 2023.
M. R. Ahliansyah, “Optimalisasi Investment Opportunity Set (Ios) Melalui Peningkatan Profitabilitas,” Entrep. J. Bisnis Manaj. dan Kewirausahaan, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 1–13, 2023.
L. Hyo-jeong, “Investor Sentiment, Cross-sectional Stock Returns, and Short-Sales: Evidence From Korea,” Glob. Bus. Financ. Rev., vol. 28, no. 3, p. 117, 2023.
G. La Cava, “Smells like animal spirits: the sensitivity of corporate investment to sentiment,” Macroecon. Dyn., pp. 1–24, 2023.
D. Sukmayana, L. S. Dewi, and S. Ikhsan, “Impact of Macroeconomic Movements on Changes in Stock Returns,” Int. J. Soc. Sci. Bus., vol. 6, no. 4, 2022.
A. Bhute, “Financial analytics for interlinking stock market and macroeconomic performance-post financial crisis 2008,” Model Assist. Stat. Appl., vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 239–245, 2022.
D. Zulkarnain, S. Solihin, and M. Nursi, “Analisis Suku Bunga SBI, Inflasi dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Consumer Goods Periode Tahun 2016-2020,” J. Sains Sosio Hum., vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 644–656, 2022.