Business Analytics for United States Retail Channel Planning Under Structural Change
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Abstract
Retail channel planning requires forecasts that remain useful when purchasing patterns change abruptly. This study examines the quarterly e-commerce share of United States retail sales using 99 observations from 2000 Q1 through 2024 Q3 in the data vintage available on December 31, 2024. Census Bureau estimates distributed through ALFRED provide the sole empirical data source. Six transparent specifications are compared at 59 successive one-quarter forecast origins using chronological estimation. Evaluation distinguishes 2010–2019, 2020–2021, and 2022–2024 Q3 and combines absolute error, squared error, directional bias, and asymmetric planning-loss sensitivity. The lowest mean absolute errors in these periods are 0.0755, 0.9375, and 0.1215 percentage points, respectively. Method rankings depend on the evaluation period and criterion. The findings support period-specific assessment, simple benchmarks, and explicit attention to planning consequences. Results use a fixed historical data vintage; they do not establish causal pandemic effects or realized firm-level savings.
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