Construction of Eligibility Indicators for Credit Guarantee Recipient Partners: A Case Study at Guarantee Company XYZ
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Abstract
Indonesia's credit guarantee companies recorded asset growth from IDR 27 trillion in 2020 to IDR 46 trillion in 2024. However, the performance of the guarantee industry declined in 2024, marked by a 14.8 percent decrease in net profit, a 27.4 percent increase in net claim expenses, and a claim ratio rising to 94 percent in 2024 and 103.92 percent in February 2025, causing guarantee fee income to no longer cover claim expenses. The increase in claims was influenced by the low quality of guaranteed credit, requiring guarantee companies to evaluate bank eligibility as guarantee recipient partners based on 13 variables related to financial performance and guarantee risk, using a sample of 28 active KUR partner banks in 2024 at Guarantee Company XYZ, employing the PCA and K-Means Clustering methods. The results show that guarantee recipient partners exhibit similar characteristic patterns among certain banks, with an average CAR of 27.65 percent and NPL of 2.62 percent, along with an annual Claim Ratio trend rising sharply and simultaneously in 2024. The PCA analysis produced five principal components explaining 83.45 percent of data variance, namely Financial Performance, Guarantee Risk, Governance Vulnerability, Guarantee Intensity, and Liquidity Risk. The K-Means Clustering method confirmed this shared characteristic, producing six bank clusters with homogeneous performance profiles, categorized as Eligible (Cluster 1-4) and Ineligible (Cluster 5-6). These criteria serve as a basis for guarantee companies in selecting guarantee recipient partners, for banks in maintaining credit quality, and for the government in formulating guarantee policies that are selective and based on partner quality.
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