The Effect of Exchange Rate on Export in Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis

Main Article Content

Sani Abdullahi Sule
Lukman Hakim
Siti Aisyah Tri Rahayu
Bhimo Rizky Samudro
Tetuko Rawidyo Putro
Putra Pamungkas

Abstract

The study's objectives are to assess other important factors that influence export promotion and explore the impact of exchange rates on export performance. To accomplish the research goals, the study uses both the theories of foreign exchange and international trade. Data from the CBN Bulletin from 2010 to 2021 were used in the analysis. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the study. The results show that the link between the exchange rate, FDI, and export value in Nigeria is both positive and insignificant. The outcome further demonstrates that FDI and export value in Nigeria have a favorable and significant relationship. This suggests that export encouragement increases with FDI levels. The findings indicate that Nigeria's export performance is negatively and insignificantly correlated with inflation. More specific policies should be implemented by the government to support export promotion in Nigeria.

Article Details

How to Cite
Abdullahi Sule, S., Hakim, L., Rahayu, S. A. T., Samudro, B. R., Putro, T. R., & Pamungkas, P. (2023). The Effect of Exchange Rate on Export in Nigeria: An Econometric Analysis. The Es Economics and Entrepreneurship, 2(02), 117–136. https://doi.org/10.58812/esee.v2i02.167
Section
Articles

References

A. P. Abina, “Nigeria Foreign Exchange Experience : Challenges , Prospects and Options for Optimal Performance,” Int. J. Bus. Law Res., vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 97–105, 2023.

CBN, “Understanding Monetary Policy, Exchange rate Management in Nigeria,” 2022. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2022/mpd/series 8.pdf (accessed Apr. 23, 2023).

E. M. Eloho, “Impact of Foreign Exchange Rate on Nigeria’s Imports (1970-2011),” Delta State University, Abraka., 2016.

A. Mojeed, “Nigeria’s FX crisis deepens as gap between naira’s official, black market rates widest in six years, Premium Times News,” 2022. https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/556088-nigerias-forex-crisis-deepens-as-gap-between-nairas-official-black-rates-widest-in-six-years.html?tztc=1 (accessed Apr. 24, 2023).

P. S. Koroma, A. Jalloh, and A. Squire, “An Empirical Examination of the Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation on Economic Growth in Sierra Leone,” J. Math. Financ., vol. 13, no. 01, pp. 17–31, 2023, doi: 10.4236/jmf.2023.131002.

O. David, “An Econometrics Analysis of the Impact Exchange Rate on Economic Growth of Nigeria,” African J. Econ. Sustain. Dev., vol. 4, pp. 185–198, Dec. 2021, doi: 10.52589/AJESD-EY7IWKD2.

M. E. Egedegbe, “Impact of Foreign Exchange Rate on Nigeria’s Imports (1970-2011),” Delta State University, Abraka, 2016.

CBN, “The Exchange Rate Management,” 2023. https://www.cbn.gov.ng/IntOps/ExchRatePolicy.asp# (accessed Apr. 30, 2023).

F. Ashaka, “Resolving Nigeria’s exchange rate crisis can curb high inflation, Premium Times Nigeria,” 2022. https://businessday.ng/opinion/article/resolving-nigerias-exchange-rate-crisis-can-curb-high-inflation/ (accessed May 01, 2023).

F. Morina, E. Hysa, U. Ergün, M. Panait, and M. C. Voica, “The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Case of the CEE Countries,” Journal of Risk and Financial Management, vol. 13, no. 8. 2020. doi: 10.3390/jrfm13080177.

M. Backman, “Exchange rate volatility How the Swedish export is influenced, Jönköping International Business School Jönköping University,” 2006. https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:4287/Fulltext01.pdf (accessed May 01, 2023).

K. S. Ikechi and N. Anthony, “Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade-in,” Int. J. Manag. Sci. Bus. Adm., vol. 6, no. 5, pp. 56–72, 2020, doi: 10.18775/ijmsba.1849-5664-5419.2014.65.1007.

S. C. Nwanonenyi, M. U. Obidiegwu, and G. C. Onuegbu, “Studies on the properties of linear low density polyethylene filled oyster shell powder,” Int. J. Eng. Sci., vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 1–8, 2013.

D. B. Ewubare and U. A. Ushie, “Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981 – 2020),” Int. J. Dev. Econ. Sustain., vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 41–55, 2022, doi: 10.37745/ijdes.13/vol10no1pp.41-55.

T. Slowe, “Exchange Rate Fluctuation And Export Performance In Nigeria (1961-2011),” Department Of Economics Faculty Of Management And Social Sciences Caritas University, Emene, Enugu State, 2013. [Online]. Available: https://pub.abuad.edu.ng/Open_Access_Research_Projects_of_Universities_-_Batch_2/Economics/Exchange_Rate_Fluctuation_And_Export_Performance_In_Nigeria_%281961-2011%29.pdf (accessed on 6th May, 2023)

M. U. Yakub, Z. Sani, T. U. Obiezue, and V. O. Aliyu, “Empirical Investigation on Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows in Nigeria,” Cent. Bank Niger. Econ. Financ. Rev., vol. 57, no. March, pp. 29–57, 2019.

I. B. Obinwata, J. E. Owuru, and A. O. Farayibi, “Exchange Rate Trends and Export Performance in Nigeria: A Descriptive Approach,” SSRN Electron. J., 2017, doi: 10.2139/ssrn.2883548.

A. O. Topson, E. P. Olukemi, and D. A. Ogunlade, “Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export Performance in Nigeria Economy,” Int. J. Manag. Bus. Stud., vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 40–43, 2017.

I. S. Rilwanu and Y. D. Elisha, “The Effect Of Exchange Rate On Export In Nigeria: The Role Of Financial Development,” IJMSSPCS Online J., vol. 4, no. 4, 2021, [Online]. Available: https://www.ijmsspcs.com/index.php/IJMSSPCS/article/view/300

A. O’Neill, “Inflation rate in Nigeria 2028,” 2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/383132/inflation-rate-in-nigeria/ (accessed May 06, 2023).

S. Bawa, I. Abdullahi, and A. Ibrahim, “Analysis of Inflation Dynamics in Nigeria (1981–2015).,” CBN J. Appl. Stat. (June, 2016), vol. 7, no. 1b, pp. 255–276, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2016/sd/analysis of inflation dynamics in nigeria.pdf

Charles Odinakachi Njoku and Nwaimo , Chilaka Emmanuel, “The Impact of Exchange Rates on Inflation in Nigeria (1981 - 2015),” Manag. Stud. Econ. Syst., vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 171–195, 2019, doi: 10.12816/0054686.

Macrotrends, “Nigeria Foreign Direct Investment 1970-2023,” 2023. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/NGA/nigeria/foreign-direct-investment (accessed May 06, 2023).

U. S. Ugochukwu, O. A. Okore, and J. O. Onoh, “The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on the Nigerian Banking Sector,” IOSR J. Bus. Manag., vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 77–92, 2013, doi: 10.9790/487x-0747792.

R. I. Okonkwo, F. C. Egbunike, and F. N. Udeh, “Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1986 – 2017),” Res. Humanit. Soc. Sci., vol. 0565, pp. 47–53, 2020, doi: 10.7176/rhss/10-6-06.

O. O. Adesuyi and O. D. Odeloye, “Foreign Trade and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1980-2010),” J. Econ. Sustain. Dev., vol. 4, pp. 73–88, 2013, [Online]. Available: https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:56073785

H. O. Aidi, H. I. Suleiman, and I. A. Saidu, “Exchange Rate, Inflation and the Nigerian Balance of Payment,” J. Econ. Sustain. Dev., vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 10–16, 2018.