Data Forecasting Model to Know the Social Impact of Poverty in the Era of Globalization in West Java Province, Indonesia
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Abstract
Globalization has a social impact in the form of poverty. Meanwhile, poverty data in West Java Province, Indonesia, will increase in 2021 by 999,960 people. In addition to education, a country's poverty level shows its citizens' welfare. Therefore the poverty level in that country must be considered. In the Sustainable Development Goals, poverty is the priority scale to be considered. Therefore, forecasting is quite crucial in planning to know in advance what will happen. ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrative Moving Average) is a modeling approach that can calculate the probability of a future value between two specified limits. This study predicts the number of poor people in West Java Province, Indonesia, from 2022 to 2025. The data used are 15 years from 2007 to 2021 and are processed with the Eviews computer program to see patterns and results in the ARIMA model. The modeling stage starts from data stationarity testing, model identification, model estimation, and model verification to forecasting. Based on the results of this study, the prediction results of the number of poor people in 2022 are 3,618,866; in 2023, it will be 3,512,758; in 2024, there will be 3,406,651, and in 2025 it will be 3,300,543 people. This forecasting uses the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrative Moving Average) model (1, 2, 1) as the most accurate method with MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation) error parameters of 1,751,747, MSE (Mean Square Error) of 6,977,202,252. 995 and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) of 8%.
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